| Hope Corman
Rider University
An analysis of grade retention: The effects of public policies
FINAL REPORT:
This study is a preliminary analysis of grade repetition in the United States, using large national data sets representative of the entire country. The study examines the incidence of grade repetition by students aged 6 to 15, using four different cross-sectional samples of children from the National Center for Education Statistics' National Household Education Survey during the 1990's: 1991, 1993, 1995, and 1996. Depending on definition, between 15 and 30 percent of children have repeated a grade by the time they reach age 15.
Then, the study uses a multivariate approach to investigate factors associated with grade repetition. First, it examines the individual characteristics of the children. Second, the study examines the family's characteristics. Third, the study looks at neighborhood characteristics. Fourth, the study looks at state-level expenditures and programs. Specifically, it examines whether state-to-state variations in Head Start expenditures, provision of public pre-school handicapped programs, current school expenditures per pupil, and provision of special education services affect a child's probability of repeating a grade. Fifth, it examines the impact of state-level policies regarding school entrance dates on grade repetition.
This study finds, after holding constant state fixed effects, that state-to-state variations in overall school expenditures, special education enrollments of 6 to 15 year olds, handicapped preschool enrollments, and Head Start allocations have no effect on whether a child has repeated a grade. School entrance month has a very large and significant impact on individual students' probability of having repeated a grade. This impact is due, almost entirely, to the relative age of the studentÑthe youngest children in the class are more likely to repeat, no matter when the cutoff date is set. Results indicate that states with earlier cutoff dates have a slightly lower (and statistically insignificant) rate of failure than states with later cutoff dates. Thus, overall, variations in state policies are found to have no effect on rates of school failure. In contrast, individual, family and neighborhood characteristics are all found to have large and significant effects on the probability that a child will repeat a grade.
Recent educational policies are intended to improve educational outcomes by assessing school success through standardized test scores. Such policies may create the unintended effect of increasing the percent of students who fail a grade in school.
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